Now there are a number of blogs that focus on Twitter, a sure sign of the Apocalypse. You may think I am being flip but Apocalypse is actually Greek for “lifting of the veil” and, according to the Wikipedia, is a term applied to the disclosure to certain privileged persons of something hidden from the majority of humankind. It also has come to mean the coming of the end of the world, as that is the main message associated with the term.  Perhaps Twitter will be used to broadcast this event to the privileged inner circle.

One of these blogs is TwiTip run by the people who bring us Problogger, an excellent resource.  The tag line is Twitter Tips in 140 Characters or More. I guess you move to a blog from Twitter when you get over 140 characters and when you want more permanence to your message. Many people started a blog because they were tired of hearing sound bytes on issues and wanted a broader forum.  Now the sound byte people have a great channel with micro-blogging.

TwiTip recently had a post on Ten People All Twitter Beginners Should be Following by Mark Hayward. I will let you guess who is on it and then go to the post. It is no surprise that a number of top bloggers are one the list. I remember when I first set up a RSS feed over four years ago and there was a suggested list of who to subscribe to. Well some of these same people, Guy Kawaskai (31,390 followers) and Robert Scoble, (41,488 followers) are on the twitter list. A number of other top bloggers made the list also. I guess that a social media star’s fame goes across channels.  Who are your favorite Twitter feed people? Perhaps Technorati will soon launch the Twitter 100.  

Post Scrip: I enjoyed Jevon’s post, The uncertain future of Blogging, I think that blogging and Twitter can co-exist. With the continuing evolution of tools, blogging is becoming more focused on what it does well - moving beyond sound bytes and providing a permanent accessible record of thought. Some of its other earlier functions are being replaced. Inside the enterprise, blogs were often used for project management until more specialized enterprise 2.0 collaboration and project management tools came along but they stood on the shoulders of blogs. Now for quick fast breaking sound bytes, micro-blogging is a better tool. It is not surprising that many well known Mumbai bloggers used their blogs to point to their twitter feeds for updates on the tragic events. Twitter is a better tool for that purpose. But i think their blogs will be a better channel for reflection on what happen. The two complement each other.

Harvard’s Andrew McAfee is also pondering how Enterprise 2.0 may make a difference, and has just posted a thought-leadership piece on how the struggling US auto companies could theoretically employ E2.0 to help emerge from their current slump.

He assumes, hypothetically, that one of the Big 3 American auto companies was taken over tomorrow by “enlightened and aggressive new leadership whose only goals are to restore the company to operational and financial excellence” — leadership that “believes firmly in the power of IT to help businesses achieve their goals and differentiate themselves in the marketplace.”

The new management is likely to be unfamiliar with the company’s current IT assets, but needs to get back on its feet as soon as possible. McAfee says the answer lies in turning to the collective wisdom of the workforce and partners — in fact, the company is likely awash with knowledge and expertise. The key is to be able to tap into that collective wisdom.

This is where Enterprise 2.0 tools come in:

“I’d roll out as quickly as possible a single integrated suite of emergent social software platforms (ESSPs) to all employees of the company. This suite would include blogs, wikis (including collaborative document production tools like Google Docs), discussion boards, SNS, a microblogging tool like Twitter or Yammer, a tagging utility, prediction markets, ways to vote on good content (a la Digg) and ways to give praise or good karma to particularly helpful colleagues. Lots of vendors both big and small are working to develop such suites; for now, I’m going to assume that a complete one exists.”

In rolling out these tools, McAfee says it’s important that “the tools be trivially easy to use, primarily by copying the look, feel, and user interface of the most popular Web 2.0 resources.” Plus, he adds, all content should be “cross-linkable, taggable, and Diggable.” Plus, training for use of the tools would be available to all, and that “there be few initial rules or policy statements beyond ‘use your judgment’ and ‘highlight any behavior you find inappropriate.’”

In economic downturns, management’s reflexive approach has been to cut, cut, cut — and chop away the very knowledgebase that could make a great company in the long run.  Enterprise 2.0 provides for a way for participation at all levels. Many of the best cost-saving and business-growth ideas come from the trenches, not from the executive suites.

I don’t intend to join the gloom-and-doom crowd, because I believe the economy is very diverse and resilient. However, it is an inescapable fact that business growth moves in cycles — up and down. In the event of a downturn, let’s ponder the role of our hyper-networked space in managing through tougher times. We may have not seen anything like it.

Let me start with this thought: It’s not 1975 anymore. In the recession that stormed through the 1974-75 period, there were massive layoffs. Workers were dismissed from plants and offices, and were lined up at unemployment offices. They were powerless, and cut off from information relevant to their industry, coworkers, and new opportunities. Nor for that matter is it 1981, when the ugly cycle repeated itself, or 1991 and 2001, when more powerless white-collar workers joined the unemployment lines.

In those times, it often didn’t matter how much value employees provided to their organizations, when it came time to slash, they were cast out to the street. Of course, many were hired back within a couple of years as things get better. But in the meantime, there were anxious months — and afterwards, the constant fear of future layoffs.

Workers are no longer those powerless pawns, locked into 9-to-5 routines, subject to the whims of their employers. Instead, they carry around portable skills, portable resources, and portable networks that can be quickly applied and adapted to new environments and situations. As we frequently discuss here at FastForward, the balance of power in organizations has shifted to the end-user. If the organization thinks it can no longer afford the services and expertise an employee provides, that employee may be able to rapidly shift that expertise and services to another organization.

Now, employees remain connected in real time not only to their co-workers from organizations past and present, but also networks of professionals in their areas of expertise. Opportunities and new ideas for generating opportunities can be quickly shared and acted upon. Blogs, wikis, search engines and the like have transformed our workspaces into one single gigantic virtual workplace. We no longer depend on our coworkers down the hall; we now leverage resources from across the globe.

Many employees simply may not even need a full-time employer anymore. In 1975, the idea of going the entrepreneurial route was not a realistic option for most workers. It took plenty of seed money and visibility to get a new operation going and profitable.

Now, it’s possible to start an innovative new business with virtually little or no investment, employing Web-based resources. It’s now possible to run an entire business on Web 2.0-based services — from infrastructure to databases to business intelligence and analytics. Many are free, the rest only charge on an incremental per-use basis.

There’s the example of GigaVox Media, a podcasting support company, that invested a grand total of $80 for its first two months in the kind of same robust IT infrastructure that would be available to GM. All the computing power you need is available right from the Web — no investment required. Web 2.0 and Software as a Service may give rise to thousands of new businesses.

Unlike previous economic downturns, many of today’s workers and professionals will not resign themselves to the powerlessness of the unemployment line. Any economic downturn has the potential to be reversed or mitigated by empowered employees or entrepreneurs who will be able to collaborate, share information and knowledge, and quickly respond to and act on new opportunities, thanks to our networked economy.

New technologies and online services may help empower people to forge through lean times with new opportunities, versus becoming victims of the economy — as has been the case in times gone by.

Rob Paterson posted an account of a Yahoo employee who was Twittering his way out the door after being laid off.  What better way to communicate your situation — and availability for new opportunities — to the world? Truly astounding, and an incredible , empowering resource.

Enterprise and Web 2.0 approaches may provide new avenues to businesses as well. Forrester’s Josh Bernoff has weighed in with some of his thoughts on how Web 2.0 would prevail through a down economy. “Things are different this time,” he opines. For example, we won’t a repeat of the devastation of the 2001 recession, because this is “not a tech bubble” as it was in 2000-2001. “Technology spending is not irrational,” he points out. Agreed.

Josh adds that social networking platforms will flourish in a down economy, however. While advertising may get cut, marketers will see greater value in blogs and social networks. And the best part is that social applications “can be nearly free (think blogs, Ning.com, facebook pages) and even more sophisticated communities are typically $30K to $200K — a lot cheaper than a significant sized ad campaign.” Plus, being all digital and all, social network-based responses are extremely measurable.

So the social networking platforms will do just fine in the event the economy were to go south for a while — and in fact, may even receive a boost from companies seeking inexpensive channels to their customers. And, as I mentioned previously, end users will have that power in their hands as well.

This past week has provided quite a lesson in the functioning of credit markets, and potential impacts on the economy at large. Will the credit crisis broaden into a deeper recession? Who knows. But, as I’ve said in previous posts, the next economic downturn will be different than ones in the past, thanks to Web 2.0 and Enterprise 2.0.

For one, companies looking to trim expenditures will find Enterprise 2.0-style tools to be compelling solutions. eWeek’s Clint Boulton just explored some of the scenarios we may see in “Recession 2.0,” if it were to come to pass.

For example, there could be more Web conferencing instead of business travel. This was a shift first seen in the 2001 post-dot-bomb downturn.

There would also be more interest in collaborative and cloud computing. “Organizations that are looking to move into new technologies, normally a project that would be put on hold when budgets are tight, can still do small implementations with SAAS, including blogs, wikis and social-networking tools to lower costs.”

One more observation on this. Even if the economy suddenly broke into a growth surge, and money started flowing from all directions, we’ll still see growth in collaborative and cloud applications. Companies recognize that the growing capabilities now offered by Enterprise 2.0 and cloud applications offer a huge competitive advantage, not only because they are low cost, but also because they are flexible, and even more important, open up the information flow between teams, departments, partners, and customers.

We have seen the future, and it is online, it is collaborative, and it is wide open — no matter what the state of the economy.

He asks what will be its future now that the attention is swtiching to more interactive and immediate tools such asd Twitter.

I would like to add to Jevon’s question by asking “What will happen when maintream News - TV, Radio and Newspapers die in the next 2 years?” I think the Twitter - Blogging issue may end up being a subset of this larger question.

Die! That’s a big statement to make. Here is the one of the best commentators on Media today, Diane Mermigas with her reasons why death may indeed be imminent:

In other words, much of digital media is about to turn into a freebie. The entertainment and media players banking on profits from discretionary purchases and high-margin extras are being confronted by more than recessionary pricing and cost concerns. This could be another dramatic about-face for digitally empowered consumers with easily accessible and cheap alternatives.

DVR penetration in 34% of households and broadband penetration in about 84% of all U.S. homes already make it cheaper to access entertainment. Even as the broadcast networks’ combined prime-time ratings continue to fall 13% this season, Americans are watching more so-called “television” than ever before–an average 142 hours per TV monthly, according to Nielsen Media–but it’s more diverse entertainment than standard TV programs.

Ubiquitous, free broadband has expanded conventional “TV viewing” on universal screens to include streaming videos on Hulu and YouTube or Facebook and MySpace, online games and even illegal movie downloads.

Google–including YouTube–has a 44% share of online video viewing, according to October 2008 figures from comScore. It may be that social networking will become a substitute for more traditional TV and movie viewing. Other free Web alternatives abound–from free audio (Pandora), free video (YouTube), free news (NYtimes.com), and free sports (Espn.com) to information (Wikipedia), and games (MSN and Club Penguin Games). The audience for individual game sites is an estimated 375 million worldwide (as much as 125 million in the U.S.), representing an exploding, ad-supported free alternative to conventional TV viewing.

The bottom line: the global economic crisis will sharply accelerate incrementally free content consumption that will send media and entertainment companies, already vexed by digital change, into a monetization meltdown.

This trend - combined with the drop in advertising - the switch to online for advertisers anf the high ongoing costs of the mainstream - means that it is indeed in its death throes.

So will there just be a vacuum?

The tools - Twitter - Blogging - Video - are all there for the real “New media”. It is all dispersed right now. What will be the new form of media? For surely we do want to be informed?

My bet is that the successful new will start with the “reader” first versus the producer. My bet is that the new will be some kind of personal all purpose aggregator. There are hints of it around now.

I use Tweetdeck to filter groups and issues on Twitter - Twitter is my first choice for news.

I use Reader to do the same for the blogs that I follow.

What do you think will fill the gap in the forest left by the fall of Big Media?

I admit freely that I am attached to the concept. I think it is better than something (whatever that is), and that is creates a lot of value.

I don’t know what the fate of blogging is, but as I think about it I wonder if it can survive without changing. Just in the last 2 years we have seen massive uptake in the creation of content by users, but most of it is now outside of the blogosphere. Status Updates on Facebook, Twitter, new levels of photo sharing and geolocation based services and networks are all becoming the centerpiece of attention.

The idea of user-generated content was once almost exclusively owned by blogging. Blogging was the conversation, blogging was the vehicle, blogging was the network.

Now blogging plays a very small role in all of those things.

Nothing illustrated this better than the recent attacks in Mumbai and the focus that was put on the role of Twitter in tracking the details of that event as it unfolded. There was a time, perhaps just 18 months ago, when the responsibility of that work (providing the infrastructure of the citizen journalist), would have fallen entirely on blogging and to some degree wikis. Not anymore.

It seems at times that blogging is becoming the domain of those people who still have something to say. I am now subscribed to more blogs than I ever have been, but at the same time I would say that I am getting real value from fewer blogs than ever.

The New Luddites
Are bloggers the new Luddites? Those who expect too much value in a single piece of content may have an expectation that is out of date. Much like newsroom editors arguing over the production values of a piece while another station has people sending in grainy pictures from their cellphones, bloggers may simple be caught in the middle of a shift away from production values to immediacy. I believe this has been illustrated throughout history and I examined this phenomenon earlier this year in my post “The Death of Resolution: Immediacy is the new quality”

Here are some themes that I am seeing emerge:

Blogging has become media
More and more blogs are being treated as a media property and many bloggers fall in to the trap of needing to create more content to keep users coming back.

Latency
Blogs are latent in comparison to twitter or text messaging, so the value proposition of blogs as a source of breaking news is losing its luster.

Very little innovation
Blogs have seen very little innovation in the last 5 years. The format has generally stayed the same and, more importantly, the method of interaction has stayed the same. Comments remain the soul source of author/reader interaction.

Tumblr
Platforms such as Tumblr are leading the way in bridging the gap between long form content and micro-sharing of content. Tools like Wordpress need to start thinking about posts as more than just a title and a body, but instead a flexible, sharable and manageable object.

Combining comments/Twitter
I want to be able to twitter a response to a post, effectively taking the conversation in to my own territory where I can comment on it and share it with my own network. When I post a comment on a blog, I am interacting with the author’s social network, and I get a lot less value from it.

I should be able to be logged in to Twitter (Facebook-Connect style system) and tweet my response. It would go in to my own Twitter stream, but would also be kept on the blog and displayed along with other twitters that originated there.

I think I will look in to building a Wordpress plugin that would allow this.

A Distributed Social Network
For blogs to continue to be valuable, they must become something that I can share, save, reuse and re-create. Right now blogs are, for most purposes, none of that.

The Future
I am not sure what the future of blogging is, but I think it is time we started experimenting to see what we can do to keep it relevant.

I recently received a review copy of Forrester TechRadar For Vendor Strategists: Enterprise Web 2.0 - How Product Strategists Should Approach A Maturing Web 2.0 Market, Q4 2008 by G. Oliver Young with Gil Yehuda, Kyle McNabb, Peter Burris, Sara Burnes, Zachary Reiss-Davis. This is a very comprehensive document that goes into great detail on the future of enterprise 2.0 technologies. They focused on technologies considered most appropriate for employee collaboration and included 11 technologies: blogs, forums, mashups, microblogs, podcasts, prediction markets, RSS, social bookmarks, social networks, widgets, and wikis.  They begin the report with useful definitions of each tool that also include use cases, some vendors, and estimated costs to implement.

One of the most interesting parts was a chart that conveyed the current status and predicted success for the Forrester 11.  Some were just starting on their journey (microblogs), others had reached their high point (podcasts and forums) but none were on their way down. Here is the breakdown but predicted success: 

Significant success: social networks and wikis

Moderate success: blogs, forums, mashups, prediction markets, RSS, widgets

Minimal success: microblogs, podcasts, social bookmarks

I would generally agree with these predictions on the tools as isolated entities. I would move mashups to the top category and social bookmarks to the moderate category. In my discussions with vendors, mashups are being increasingly used as the application development platform underlying many tools. So it is both getting harder to separate them and they are becoming more pervasive. I think social bookmarks provide a useful utility that is getting integrated into other tools.

However, my major concern is looking at these tools in isolation. I see an increasing movement among vendors to provide integrated platforms that make use of a number of these tools.  Even a very focus tool like Connectbeam combines social networking with social bookmarking and integrates it with search. Broader platforms like Traction make use of blogs, wikis, forums, and, most recently microblogging.  Deki Wiki and Central Desktop combine many of these tools with a wiki platform under the covers. I could go on. In fairness to the Forrester group, they did say that some tools such as microblogging will make it as a feature rather than as a standalone tool. I just think the analysis should make more mention of integrated platforms.

Some of the other highlights include the finding that none of the enterprise 2.0 technologies are at risk of obsolescence as no replacements are on the horizon. They also said that the business value will accrue at a relatively slow pace. They argued that while consumers can dramatically alter their behavior in weeks and months, it’s much more difficult to move thousands of workers in an enterprise to go in one direction. This may likely be the case for enterprise wide adoption in large organizations. The successes that I have seen are more at the small to midsize business level or divisions of larger organizations.

The reports adds that RSS’s function for repurposing content is underappreciated in the enterprise which is an excellent point. People need to be more creative here. Another conclusion finds social networks becoming the focal point for enterprise 2.0 in organizations. They wrote, “Social networks provide context to content. Whereas information management traditionally focused on the information itself, employees will seek to connect with the people who created and care about the same information they care about.” I could not agree more.

The report finds that wikis show evidence of helping transform collaboration in the enterprise.  A number of the vendors, such as Traction, Deki Wiki, and Central Desktop mentioned above, as well as many others, are using a wiki platform but adding a lot of functionality on top. I think this is where the future lies.  The report goes into great detail and I have just covered a few highlights. It appears to be a useful state of the industry. I have taken a few minor exceptions, as noted above, but it largely rings true.  I want to see a next report on the trend towards integration of functionality into broader platforms.

There is also a version of this report for KM professionals – see Forrester TechRadar™ For I&KM Pros: Enterprise Web 2.0 - Wikis And Social Networks Are Ready To Deliver High Value To Your Enterprise, Q4 2008 by Gil Yehuda with Kyle McNabb, G. Oliver Young, Sara Burnes, Zachary Reiss-Davis. I have written on a number of occasions that the advent of enterprise 2.0 proivder knowledge management professionals with a great opportunity to play a leadership role in their organizations.  This reports provides useful guidance on the some actions that KM people might take. It begins with some of options the organizations face.

On one hand, waiting for IT to provide approved Web 2.0 tools leads to competitive disadvantage. On the other hand, using the tools available externally puts information at risk. In addition, downloading and running Web 2.0 tools on internal servers increase IT headaches. I have argued before, as other have, that Web 2.0 is not enterprise 2.0. I agree with the report that none of these options are good ones. Within the enterprise you need to adopt tools that were designed for business use within the enterprise. Some of these tools can be cloud based but they also need to be business based. If you are a KM professional who wants to play a leadership role in the implementation of enterprise 2.0, this report will provide useful explanations and guidance. There is a lot of detail here. 

Commandos were not only surprised to find the devices in the terrorists’ rucksacks, but that they used the internet to look beyond local Indian media for information, watching the global reaction in real-time as well.

It’s somewhat striking that the terrorists’ use of BlackBerrys “caught the anti-terrorist forces by surprise.” While perhaps another step forward in the sophistication of their organization, in that it it makes communication more instant than ever, it’s long been reported that terrorist networks use the internet and cellphones for communication. Why wouldn’t they use the same tools that millions around the world use? They don’t all live in caves, you know. (Gizmodo)

Of course the people who don’t use social media much or well are the security forces!!!!!!!

If there was ever proof that this combination has taken its place in the forefront of breaking news - this is it.

Here is a link to JP’s excellent post on this topic - that shows you graphically what I mean.

Here is Dina’s summary of many of the online resources.

Now networks such as CNN go to people like Dina for insight

As Newspapers and the Networks slowly die, their replacement gets stronger.

Here is the Daily Telegraph’s acknowledgement of this.

Indeed, many mainstream media outlets, including CNN, used video footage and photos sent in from people on the ground in Mumbai to illustrate their reports, and many television stations, radio stations and newspapers were also keeping a close eye on Twitter and the blogosphere in the hope of finding out more information.

Despite the obvious value and immediacy of these eyewitness accounts, there are signs that the blogosphere is struggling to know what to do for the best when these sort of incidents occur.

While Twitter is a powerful social medium for spreading news and information, some government agencies fear it could also be used by terrorists as a tool for communication. Last month, the US military warned that terrorist groups could use free, internet-based services, such as Twitter, as a means of communicating covertly across a medium that is difficult for authorities to trace and track.

In fact, it is alleged that at the height of the Mumbai terrorist attacks, the Indian government tried to shut down the Twitter stream people were using to spread news and information, amid fears that it could be used by the terrorists to help them evade capture.

While Twitter and other social media are not yet in a position to replace the mainstream media, there can be no doubt that they provide a powerful communication platform. Last night, the social web came of age.

Here is the New York Times adding their support to this idea of Twitter & Social Media coming of age:

From his terrace on Colaba Causeway in south Mumbai, Arun Shanbhag saw the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower Hotel burn. He saw ambulances leave the Nariman House. And he recorded every move on the Internet.

Mr. Shanbhag, who lives in Boston but happened to be in Mumbai when the attacks began on Wednesday, described the gunfire on his Twitter feed — the “thud, thud, thud” of shotguns and the short bursts of automatic weapons — and uploaded photos to his personal blog.

Mr. Shanbhag, an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School, said he had not heard the term citizen journalism until Thursday, but now he knows that is exactly what he was doing. “I felt I had a responsibility to share my view with the outside world,” Mr. Shanbhag said in an e-mail message on Saturday morning.

The attacks in India served as another case study in how technology is transforming people into potential reporters, adding a new dimension to the news media.

At the peak of the violence, more than one message per second with the word “Mumbai” in it was being posted onto Twitter, a short-message service that has evolved from an oddity to a full-fledged news platform in just two years.

Those descriptions and others on Web sites and photo-sharing sites served as a chaotic but critically important link among people across the world — whether they be Hasidic Jews in Brooklyn tracking the fate of a rabbi held hostage at the Nariman House or students in Britain with loved ones back in India or people hanging on every twist and turn in the standoff while visiting relatives for Thanksgiving dinner.

Kara reported that “some sources at Facebook said Zuckerberg was becoming frustrated by the buzz Twitter was getting.” I guess he wanted to take over that buzz. At the same time, Zuckerberg called Twitter an “elegant model” and said that he was “really impressed by what they’ve done.” So he offered stock with no liquid value for a company with no revenue.  Perhaps the government should do this for bailouts and save the taxpayers real money.  On the other hand, it does seem appropriate that the consumer web Facebook should go after the consumer web Twitter.  Neither is designed for enterprise use but both have inspired a lot of enterprise tools such as the Twitter for business tools: Yammer, Present.ly, QikCom, and SocialCast that have been covered on The AppGap.  

It is hard to walk away from $500 million or even the $150 million that Kara reported Twitter felt was a more realistic value of the Facebook offering.  So I hope they made the right choice. Since no cash was offered, I can see some real concern by the Twitterites here. Kara closed with the comment that one Twitter source said: “The question is, is it really a good idea to sell on the first chance you get?”  More times that not, my experience is that you regret not doing it but we will just have to see. 

This past US presidential election season, of course, we had “Joe the Plumber” as John McCain’s poster boy for overtaxation. (Even though it turned out Joe was only his middle name, but close enough…) And we had Sarah Palin, who kept insisting she was the candidate of “Joe Sixpack.” Of course, we also had a Joe on the winning ticket with Barack Obama, so we’ll soon have a Joe in Washington helping to look out for our interests.

That’s why I got a chuckle out of a mailer I just got for the upcoming User-Generated Content Conference (UGCX), sponsored by MediaBistro and scheduled for San Jose in February.

The promotional write-up states that “user-generated content is a rapidly developing revolution in the media. ‘Average Joe” users now wield power over online content, and businesses need to adapt to respond to this trend.”

Speaking for all the Joes in the world, it feels good to have power for a change. But we promise we won’t let it go to our heads.

UGCX is targeting the social media space, but there are plenty of implications for enterprises as well as they seek ways to better leverage all the data, knowledge, and resources within their domains. There’s no question that user-generated content is becoming a huge force on the business scene. David Weinberger actually gave a great talk on this very topic at the 2008 FastForward conference in Orlando. Not only is content being generated by users, but it is also being organized by users through mechanisms such as tagging.